Raws li lub tuam txhab loj loj ntawm roj hmab pab cuam, Shenyang Sunnyjoint Chemicals Co., Ltd. Kawm kom paub tias cov khoom siv roj hmab, nrog rau kev loj hlob sai ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub tsheb thiab lub log ntawm kev lag luam, tau tsav ceev ceev ntawm kev siv cov roj hmab ntau ntxiv.
Tam sim no, Tuam Tshoj tus roj hmab additive ntau lawm muaj accounted rau 75% ntawm ntiaj teb no muaj peev xwm, thaum cov roj hmab additives tau ua cov neeg siv coob ntawm kev lag luam aniline. Nrog rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsheb thiab tsheb kev lag luam mus rau hauv lub lag luam qeeb qeeb tom qab cog ceev ceev, ua ke nrog cov normalization ntawm kev txhim kho sab hauv tsev thiab cov smog nyob rau lub caij ntuj no, tsis muaj kev txhim kho kev nce qib.
Yog li ntawd, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov roj hmab cov roj additives yog qeeb heev, thiab tej zaum yuav tshwm sim. Kev tsis zoo, raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm lub Koom Haum Pab Koomtes Pab Koomtes, kev tsim cov roj hmab antioxidants thiab cov neeg tsav tsheb hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2017 yog -4.4% thiab -0.5%, feem. Qhov tsim tawm ntawm cov roj hmab additives yuav txhawb nqa me ntsis nce qib tam sim no hauv ob peb xyoos tom ntej no.
Nws tau kwv yees tias qhov kev thov rau aniline rau roj hmab additives yuav nce mus txog 370,000 ton hauv 2020. Nyob rau hauv thaj tsam ntawm dyes, tshuaj, tshuaj tua kab thiab intermediates, lub lag luam hauv domestic demand kuj ruaj khov. Vim tias muaj mob aniline feem ntau yog siv rau hauv daim teb no, xws li cov khoos phis tuaj yeem, tshwj cov qauv ntawm kev tsim kho ntawm Jiangsu thiab Zhejiang tshuaj tsim chaw Cov kev hloov pom tau sai thiab qee qhov chaw hauv tsev yuav raug kaw tas li.
Yog li, qhov kev thov rau aniline hauv daim teb no yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm qib tam sim no, thiab yuav qhia kev loj hlob pes tsawg los yog kev loj hlob tsis zoo txawm tias ob peb xyoos tom ntej no. Nws yog kwv yees hais tias kwv yees li ntawm 1600,000 tons ntawm aniline yuav noj nyob rau hauv 2020. Cyclohexylamine thiab diphenylamine, cyclohexylamine yog tsuas yog siv nyob rau hauv qhuav ntawm sodium cyclamate thiab accelerator CBS. Kev thov kev lag luam rau tag nrho cov khoom nqes nqes yog maj mam nce. Diphenylamine yog tsuas yog siv rau hauv cov roj hmab additives, cov roj additives, cov tshuaj thiab cov tshuaj tua kab. Txoj kev lag luam coob tshaj plaws yog qeeb qeeb, tab sis cov chaw ua lag luam hauv tsev yog rov zoo dua.
Qhov teeb meem ntawm export cyclohexylamine thiab diphenylamine thiab downstream khoom zoo tau zoo dua. Nws kwv yees tias qhov kev thov rau aniline yuav ncav cuag 110,000 tons los ntawm 2020. Lwm qhov chaw muaj roj ntxiv. Polyaniline, cov tshuaj xyaw tshwj xeeb, cov fibers tshwj xeeb, thiab lwm yam., Kev noj cov tshuaj aniline hauv cov teb no yuav tsis loj heev. Nws tau kwv yees tias kev noj cov tshuaj aniline hauv daim teb no yuav yog li ntawm 110,000 tons hauv xyoo 2020. Nyob rau sab nraud export, nrog rau kev siv ntau lub teeb roj hlav xws li shale roj sia mus thoob ntiajteb, cov qoob loo nyob rau hauv North America tau qis qis. Raws li ib qho tseem ceeb hauv cov khoom ntawm aromatics, aniline muaj ib qho pheej yig prospect ntawm export ntawm aniline, tab sis yuav raug hloov tus nqi hloov, yav tom ntej xa mus yuav tau hloov. Nws tau kwv yees tias cov khoom muaj nqis aniline yuav nyob rau ntawm 150,000 tons hauv xyoo 2020.
Raws li cov saum toj no, nws yog kwv yees hais tias cov khoom lag luam hauv domestic aniline (ntxiv rau cov khoom xa tawm) yuav nce mus txog 1 lab tons hauv xyoo 2020, thaum lub sij hawm tam sim no muaj yim aniline muaj peev xwm nce mus txog 1.74 lab tons, scale qhov chaw ntawm Fuqiang tshiab cov ntaub ntawv. Yog tias cov khoom siv raug kaw thiab tshem tawm raws li kev npaj yuav tsum tau, cov kev siv tshuaj aniline muaj peev xwm ncav cuag li 60% -70% ntawm xyoo 2020, uas yog siab dua tus nqi khiav hauj lwm tam sim no. Overcapacity tseem muaj nyob, tab sis qhov tshaj yuav eased.